ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Estimating Benefits of Past, Current, and Future Reductions in Smoking Rates Using a Comprehensive Model With Competing Causes of Death
| Age, y | Expected Life Years Gained at Each Age | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women | Men | |||||||
| Never Initiate | Quit at 25 | Quit at 45 | Quit at 65 | Never Initiate | Quit at 25 | Quit at 45 | Quit at 65 | |
| 25 | 0.002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.008 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | 0.006 | 0.002 | 0 | 0 | 0.012 | 0.003 | 0 | 0 |
| 40 | 0.009 | 0.004 | 0 | 0 | 0.017 | 0.006 | 0 | 0 |
| 45 | 0.015 | 0.007 | 0 | 0 | 0.025 | 0.011 | 0 | 0 |
| 50 | 0.023 | 0.014 | 0.002 | 0 | 0.038 | 0.021 | 0.004 | 0 |
| 55 | 0.035 | 0.023 | 0.006 | 0 | 0.056 | 0.037 | 0.012 | 0 |
| 60 | 0.053 | 0.038 | 0.015 | 0 | 0.083 | 0.059 | 0.027 | 0 |
| 65 | 0.085 | 0.062 | 0.031 | 0 | 0.124 | 0.092 | 0.050 | 0 |
| 70 | 0.131 | 0.096 | 0.067 | 0.004 | 0.177 | 0.135 | 0.095 | 0.015 |
| 75 | 0.187 | 0.137 | 0.111 | 0.015 | 0.234 | 0.179 | 0.145 | 0.034 |
| 80 | 0.239 | 0.171 | 0.149 | 0.048 | 0.269 | 0.202 | 0.176 | 0.063 |
| 85 | 0.261 | 0.179 | 0.164 | 0.070 | 0.252 | 0.181 | 0.164 | 0.066 |
| 90 | 0.211 | 0.135 | 0.126 | 0.074 | 0.169 | 0.113 | 0.104 | 0.055 |
| 95 | 0.108 | 0.061 | 0.058 | 0.039 | 0.072 | 0.042 | 0.039 | 0.024 |
| 100 | 0.034 | 0.016 | 0.015 | 0.011 | 0.020 | 0.009 | 0.009 | 0.006 |
Figure 1. Expected gain in years of life across the lifespan by age of quitting, relative to a lifetime smoker, by sex. After quitting smoking, individuals are more likely to be alive at every age after the quit age. The largest gain is around age 80, but gains are smaller for those who quit later in life.
| Age, y | Years of Life Gained Per 10,000 at Each Age | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women | Men | |||||
| Years of Life Already Gained | Years of Life Yet to be Gained | Years of Life Gained if No Smoking | Years of Life Already Gained | Years of Life Yet to be Gained | Years of Life Gained if No Smoking | |
| 25 | 0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 17.4 | 1.6 | 15.7 |
| 30 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 28.0 | 3.5 | 25.4 |
| 35 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 12.2 | 41.2 | 4.9 | 36.7 |
| 40 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 18.1 | 60.2 | 4.9 | 51.1 |
| 45 | 15.3 | 6.1 | 27.1 | 81.0 | 15.0 | 70.9 |
| 50 | 18.2 | 16.0 | 40.8 | 110.3 | 32.4 | 100.9 |
| 55 | 28.0 | 26.0 | 60.3 | 138.7 | 68.8 | 138.9 |
| 60 | 39.8 | 42.6 | 85.7 | 169.7 | 129.3 | 190.3 |
| 65 | 53.3 | 73.5 | 124.4 | 216.2 | 215.3 | 260.5 |
| 70 | 76.8 | 119.8 | 182.8 | 255.5 | 338.3 | 335.6 |
| 75 | 114.7 | 179.2 | 260.4 | 302.6 | 447.4 | 408.2 |
| 80 | 151.7 | 246.3 | 343.1 | 285.2 | 538.5 | 447.9 |
| 85 | 179.2 | 298.9 | 412.6 | 278.6 | 469.8 | 418.8 |
| 90 | 220.3 | 257.8 | 427.0 | 183.2 | 314.4 | 297.4 |
| 95 | 177.1 | 171.1 | 335.5 | 78.0 | 139.2 | 142.3 |
| 100 | 89.8 | 69.5 | 172.4 | 24.2 | 39.4 | 46.9 |
| Change in Life Expectancy | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
Figure 2. Gains in years of life relative to mid-1900s initiation and cessation rates, by age and sex. Lower initiation and cessation rates have yielded additional life years in the population at all ages (area under the curve is the gain in life expectancy (ΔLE), and additional gains are expected if initiation and cessation rates stay at 2004 levels.
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