Projections of the Number of Persons Diagnosed with AIDS and the
Number of Immunosuppressed HIV-Infected Persons -- United States,
1992-1994
CDC recently published new projections of the number of
persons in the United States who will initially be diagnosed with
a condition included in the 1987 acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
(AIDS) surveillance case definition during 1992-1994 (1). * The
report also presents estimates of the number of persons with human
immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related severe immunosuppression
(defined as HIV-infected persons with CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts less
than 200 cells/uL whose illnesses have not been diagnosed as
conditions included in the 1987 surveillance definition) as well as
estimates on the effect of adding this measure of immunosuppression
to the 1993 expanded AIDS surveillance case definition (2).
During 1991, approximately 58,000 persons in the United States
had AIDS as defined by the 1987 AIDS surveillance criteria. During
1992-1994, the number of persons who have illnesses meeting these
criteria is expected to increase by a few percent annually, with
approximately 85% of those persons being reported to CDC with cases
of AIDS. As in recent years, the rate of increase in reported AIDS
cases in persons who acquired their HIV infection through
heterosexual contact is expected to be greater than that in persons
who acquired HIV through either injecting-drug use or male
homosexual or bisexual contact.
CDC estimates that, as of January 1993, an additional 120,000-
190,000 U.S. residents had HIV-related severe immunosuppression.
However, not all of these persons were aware of their HIV
infection, and of those who know their HIV infection status, not
all have had an immunologic evaluation.
If AIDS surveillance criteria had remained unchanged,
approximately 50,000-60,000 reported AIDS cases would have been
expected in 1993. The expansion of the AIDS surveillance case
definition to include HIV-related severe immunosuppression should
increase reported cases by approximately 75%. In subsequent years,
the effect of this expansion on the number of reported cases is
expected to be smaller because in 1993 many prevalent as well as
incident cases of immunosuppression will be reported as the
expanded surveillance case definition is implemented. Accordingly,
reported cases of AIDS may decline from 1993 through 1994. However,
the number of AIDS cases reported in 1994 is still expected to
exceed by 10%-20% the number that would have been reported if the
1987 surveillance criteria had remained in effect.
Reported by: Div of HIV/AIDS, National Center for Infectious
Diseases, CDC.
References
CDC. Projections of the number of persons diagnosed with AIDS
and the number of im- munosuppressed HIV-infected persons -- United
States, 1992-1994. MMWR 1992;41(no. RR-18).
CDC. 1993 Revised classification system for HIV infection and
expanded surveillance case definition for AIDS among adolescents
and adults. MMWR 1992;41(no. RR-17).
Single copies of the document will be available in January from
the CDC National AIDS Clearinghouse, P.O. Box 6003, Rockville, MD
20849-6003; telephone (800) 458-5231.
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